The Islamic Fascists are in full control. By all accounts they have their routine down pat when it comes to controlling what is apparently a movement losing steam. Turnout was down from protests last year, communications with the west were effectively cut off and by all accounts the regimes reliance on the Revolutionary Guard and hired thugs kept a lid on things.
Bill Clinton's heart procedure took over the top of the news cycle (Get well Mr. President, I never voted for you, but as a card carrying member of the Bypass/Stent club, I want you to live long and prosper... and you too Dick Cheney.), and the news in Iran was as much dominated by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announce that they are officially a nuclear power with the advent of their ability to enrich uranium to the 20% level. Unless some miracle happens, Iran will get the bomb...Remember: making a bomb is 1940's technology. Making them small enough to fit on a missile will take a while longer.
No, for all you folks who thought the Iranian Green movement was the inevitable path to fundamental change in Iran, I tell you now, this was a Prague Spring time. I expect the regime to survive at least another ten years and by then, regardless of who takes over (if even then) they will inherit a Nuclear armed Iran.
My advice to Green Iranians: if you want a rapid and complete change of the Islamic Republic of Iran, my advice is you are going to have to fight for it. And guess what: Don't try fighting for it till a President of the United States is in power that will back your play with arms. The Obama administration is, as widely stated "Carter on Steroids". Good luck on ANY meaningful efforts or sanctions from this lot. China and Russia are perfectly content to let the current thugs in power stay there and there is NOTHING Obama can do to change their mind. He is, an empty suit and China and Russia know it.
Here are some of my posts on this issue since the first Green protests took place: Starting with one post that, in hindsight, was damn accurate:
http://www.bloggybayou.com/2009/06/ya-say-you-want-revolution.html
And here are some later Posts:
http://www.bloggybayou.com/2009/09/obama-and-his-empty-rhetoric-on-iran.html
http://www.bloggybayou.com/2009/12/iran-is-on-fire-and-no-one-in.html
http://www.bloggybayou.com/2010/02/iran-is-on-fire-and-its-latest-vow-to.html
You can go on my Website (http://www.bloggybayou.com/) and search on Iran for more posts. My hindsight is not 20/20 (always blogging reflects current reactions to current events) but I have been fairly consistent on Obama's impotence and the fact that the current regime is much more entrenched and much more willing to use force to stay in power (China is providing much of the technical assistance when it comes to shutting down communications and western press access.)
Think of the current regime in terms of the Bosnian situation in the 1990's. The Mullahs are the Serbs, the Greens are the urbanite Bosnians . The Serbs would have succeeded in "ethnic cleansing" if not for US Air Power and NATO ground troops (read Brits).
In summary, most revolutions involve armed insurrection by the aggrieved party. I don't see any quick change in the current regime without the use of force by the Greens. An armed protestor is much more difficult to control than an unarmed. And the threat of civil war may prompt the Iranian Military to intervene, probably on the side of the Greens (There is no love lost between the regular Military and the Revolutionary Guard)
One piece is missing and will be until, at the earliest, 20 January 2013: A President willing to arm the opposition.
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